Gambling on the Pope
The death of a pope presented a lucrative opportunity in Renaissance Italy. Fortunes could be made – but only if you could correctly guess the conclave’s chosen successor.
In Renaissance Italy, prediction markets were numerous and diverse, risky but potentially lucrative. Italians could bet on the outcome of a horse race, the sex of an unborn child, or the nomination of a new cardinal. One of the biggest games, on which fortunes could be made or lost, was the election of a new pope. As soon as a pontiff died, brokers in Rome began taking bets on who would succeed to the throne of Saint Peter. A newly accessible document held in the State Archives of Florence reveals how merchants used the conclave as an opportunity for financial speculation in a manner that was no different from any other commercial activity.
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